Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS62 KJAX 261132
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
732 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk
 at Southeast GA Beaches

- Scattered Thunderstorms Inland Late This Afternoon and
  Evening. Main Hazard Area: Inland Locations Along and West of
  U.S. 301

- Mainly Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorm Chances Increase Late
  this Week and During the Upcoming Weekend. Heavy Rainfall and
  Localized Flooding will be a Concern

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today for NE FL Beaches

- Isolated Strong Storms Late this Afternoon through this Evening.
Main Hazard Area: Inland Locations Along and West of U.S.-301 in SE
GA. Primary Storm Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph, Frequent
Lightning Strikes, Heavy Downpours and Localized Flooding

Lingering showers and storms west of US 301 will gradually dissipate
as they shift northward early this morning. Persistent deep-layered
ridging across the SE seaboard will gradually retreat ESE with flow
becoming more southerly. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable
Water imagery indicates a drier air mass over central and south FL
has shifted into coastal NE FL dropping PWATs into the 1.6-1.8 in.
range. This drier airmass will gradually overtake the deep tropical
airmass (PWATs 1.9-2.1 in) currently over SE GA and Suwannee Valley.
This will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
developing along the inland moving sea breezes in NE FL this
afternoon into evening. Breezy SE winds with gusts 20-30 mph develop
in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Better
convective coverage remains across inland SE GA where the tropical
moisture remains with ample instability. Due to a more southerly
flow, the sea breeze merger will be between US 301 and I-75
corridors. A few strong storms will be possible in the late
afternoon into early evening for inland SE GA where activity could
be enhanced by passing shortwaves aloft and boundary collisions.
Stronger storms could produce gusty winds 40-50 mph, heavy
downpours, and frequent lightning. Training storms could result in
localized flooding, particularly for urban or normally flood prone,
low-lying areas. Similar to previous nights, convection will linger
into the early morning and gradually dissipate as the activity
shifts northward.

Above seasonable temperatures continue with daytime highs in the
upper 80s along the coast to low-mid 90s inland and overnight lows
in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Peak heat indices this afternoon will
range from the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
- Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain
- Heat index 95-105 degrees in the afternoons

The generally steering flow will trend south-southwesterly Wednesday
and then more westerly by Thursday. A rich pool of Gulf moisture
will be tapped into Wednesday as flow begins to veer, resulting in
more numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along a slightly
more dominant Gulf breeze. The highest chances for widespread
thunderstorms will be more focused along the I-95 corridor during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. As flow turns more
westerly under influence from an positive-tilt upper trough dropping
in from the north will again focus the best thunderstorm potential
along and east of I-95 and into the adjacent Atlantic coastal waters
Thursday afternoon.

Aside from a lightning threat, the primary concerns with
thunderstorms this week will be the high-rain rates (4-6" per hour)
and localized flooding with a tropical-like airmass, especially
Thursday as precipitable water pushes to near record levels (for
early June). The threat for severe storms is fairly low given modest
to weak lapse rates aloft. This isn`t a favorable "training"
convection set up, so not slam dunk flash flooding event but it is
something to be aware of come Thursday.

Given the development of an offshore flow and a pinned Atlantic sea
breeze, hot temperatures - in the low 90s - are expected at the
beaches in addition to the inland areas both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Increasing Thunderstorm Chances, Carrying a Risk for Flooding

A wet pattern amid a very moist tropical-like airmass will continue
through the weekend. The primary threat will be heavy rain and high
rainfall rates through the weekend as high-grade Gulf moisture
continues to feed diurnal convection. To the north a late-season
cold front will begin to sink southward and stall near, but likely
to the north of, the Altamaha River in southeast GA and be a second
focus for afternoon convection in addition to the sea breeze Friday.

Forecast confidence in the pattern takes a nose dive this weekend.
Current expectation is that during the overnight hours Friday into
Saturday, a weak low will loosely organize along the stalled front
and continue rain chances through most of the night, before it moves
off the coast sometime Saturday. On the backside of the low,
northeasterly flow should push the stalled front into the forecast
area where it`ll be parked through Sunday but possibly Monday. This
will keep skies mostly cloudy, temperatures a bit cooler than
normal, and ignite waves of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.

Though uncommon for the beginning of meteorological summer, there`s
some potential for the front to shift further south ushering in a
drier airmass and much cooler temperatures early next week. While
cooler conditions are expected due to the cloud cover and damp
conditions, the forecast still leans toward the stalled frontal
scenario, not one where it clears the area to the south. Thus,
sensible weather favors highs in the low to mid 80s with daily
chances for rain/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected for most of the day through the evening,
with gusty southeasterly winds filling in this afternoon as the
Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Overall, precipitation/thunder
chances are low near the coastal sites, with best chances for a
storm being at GNV and VQQ later this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...

A stalled frontal boundary stretching across the Mid-Atlantic states
and into the lower Mississippi Valleys will lift slowly northward
today as Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda remains over
the southeastern seaboard. Breezy southeast to southerly winds will
continue through midweek across our local waters, with exercise
Caution levels prevailing during the afternoon and evening hours as
wind speeds surge to just below Small Craft Advisory levels. High
pressure positioned off the southeastern seaboard will gradually
weaken and retreat through the week as a cold front shifts southward
towards our local waters during the upcoming weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will tend to develop during the overnight
and morning hours on today and Wednesday, with activity then
increasing in coverage through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

Breezy SSE winds and breakers of 2-4 feet will maintain a high risk
at NE FL beaches this afternoon and evening. A higher end moderate
risk prevails at the southeast GA beaches today. High/Moderate risk
continues into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Inland Dispersion Inland Today And Wednesday

A summery pattern, dominated by the Bermuda high pressure, continues
through mid week. General winds will favor a southerly direction
today, allowing the Gulf and Atlantic sea to each make a push toward
the US 301 corridor. That`ll be the "sweet spot" for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening as
the two sea breezes merge. Outside of thunderstorm outflow
influences, winds will be southerly inland to south-southeasterly at
the coast through the early afternoon around 6-12 mph with gusts
around 15 mph inland and up to 20 mph along the immediate coast.
Given the breezy conditions, areas of high dispersion are expected
this afternoon and likely again Wednesday afternoon. Increasing
thunderstorm activity is expected Wednesday and into the weekend as a
general winds turn southwesterly, tapping into a tropical-like
airmass in the Gulf.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into early next week but patchy morning fog will be possible in
areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic
winds during periods of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  70  88  70 /  40  40  50  20
SSI  88  77  88  75 /  10  20  50  30
JAX  92  75  93  74 /  30  20  60  30
SGJ  90  76  91  75 /  10  10  50  50
GNV  94  73  92  72 /  30  50  40  40
OCF  92  74  90  73 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$